Abstract:
This data indicates the maximum estimated depth of river flooding (fluvial flooding) in meters (m) at a given location, for a flood event of a particular probability. The flood depths are calculated by subtracting the ground levels from the predicted water level. The flood depths are mapped as constant depths over grid squares of 5x5m, whereas in reality depths may vary within a given square.
Flood event probabilities are referred to in terms of a percentage Annual Exceedance Probability, or ‘AEP’. This represents the probability of an event of this, or greater, severity occurring in any given year. These probabilities may also be expressed as odds (e.g. 100 to 1) of the event occurring in any given year. They are also commonly referred to in terms of a return period (e.g. the 100-year flood), although this period is not the length of time that will elapse between two such events occurring, as, although unlikely, two very severe events may occur within a short space of time. The following sets out a range of flood event probabilities for which fluvial and coastal flood maps are typically developed;
5% Annual Exceedance Probability which can also be expressed as the 20 Year Return Period and as 20:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
1% (Medium Probability) Annual Exceedance Probability which can also be expressed as the 100 Year Return Period and as 100:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
0.1% (Low Probability) Annual Exceedance Probability which can also be expressed as the 1000 Year Return Period and as 1000:1 odds of occurrence in any given year.
The Present Day Scenario is also referred to as the Current Scenario. Present Day Scenario data was generated using methodologies based on historic flood data, without taking account of potential changes due to climate change. The potential effects of climate change have been separately modelled and reported on.
Data has been produced for catchments greater than 5km2 in areas for which flood maps were not produced under the National CFRAM Programme and should be read in this context. River reaches that have been modelled are indicated by the NIFM Modelled River Centrelines dataset.
Flooding from other reaches of river may occur, but has not been mapped, and so areas that are not shown as being within a flood extent may therefore be at risk of flooding from unmodelled rivers (as well as from other sources).
The purpose of the Flood Maps is not to designate individual properties or point locations at risk of flooding, or to replace a detailed site-specific flood risk assessment.
Lineage:
The indicative fluvial flood maps were developed using hydrodynamic modelling, based on calculated design river flows, Digital Terrain Models, and other relevant datasets (e.g. land use, data on past floods, etc.).
The process may vary for particular areas or maps.
The National Indicative Fluvial Maps provide an indication of areas that may flood during a flood of an estimated probability of occurring. As detailed in the Technical Data, a number of assumptions have been made in order to produce a dataset suitable for national level flood risk assessments.
The National Indicative Fluvial Maps are not the best achievable representation of flood extents and they are not as accurate as the Flood Maps produced under the National Catchment Flood Risk Assessment and Management (CFRAM) Programme.
The maps should not be used to assess the flood risk associated with individual properties or point locations, or to replace a detailed site-specific flood risk assessment.
Flood levels and depths are derived from the hydrodynamic models for the various event probabilities and scenarios. Flood extents are derived from the raster flood depth maps and vectorised to produce the final vector outputs.
Purpose:
The data has been developed to inform a national assessment of flood risk that in turn will inform a review of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment required to comply with the requirements of the European Communities (Assessment and Management of Flood Risks) Regulations 2010 to 2015 (the “Regulations”) (implementing Directive 2007/60/EC) for the purposes of establishing a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks, aiming at the reduction of adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activity associated with floods.
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